Good Morning, Builders.

Today we look at how big bets are getting sharper, capital is concentrating, and platforms are subtly expanding their grip. Let’s get to work.

Prediction market Kalshi raised a $1 billion round at an $11 billion valuation, more than doubling its value less than two months after closing a $300 million raise at $5 billion. Led by Paradigm with backing from Sequoia, a16z, and Capital G, the round reflects growing investor confidence that betting on future outcomes has moved beyond election-night novelty into a legitimate financial tool. While Kalshi surged during the 2024 U.S. presidential race, much of its volume now comes from sports, with future growth expected to come from companies hedging real-world risks like weather disruptions or government shutdowns. (TechCrunch)

Amazon is rolling out a dedicated news tab inside Prime Video, giving U.S. users free access to live channels like ABC News Live, CBS News 24/7, CNN Headlines, NBC News Now, and Fox’s LiveNOW by the end of the year. Amazon wants Prime Video to become a daily destination, not just a place users open for shows or sports. By bundling always-on news with entertainment (and pairing it with optional paid channels like Sony Pictures Core) Amazon is subtly pushing Prime Video closer to a cable-style hub, optimized around convenience, retention, and habit formation as streaming competition intensifies. (Reuters)

Anthropic is reportedly exploring an IPO as early as 2026, a move that could arm it with fresh capital to compete with OpenAI, but it’s happening against a backdrop of growing concern that AI valuations are overheating. While central banks and investors like Michael Burry warn of bubble conditions, new data suggests Anthropic’s Claude subscriptions are growing far faster than OpenAI’s, whose consumer growth appears to be slowing in key markets. Despite the imperfect timing, public markets may be the only realistic next stop for Anthropic. (Yahoo Finance)

Meta has hired Alan Dye, Apple’s longtime head of interface design, signaling how serious it is about winning the next wave of consumer hardware. Dye helped shape how billions of people interact with the iPhone and iPad, and his move underscores Meta’s push beyond apps into AI-powered devices like smart glasses and mixed reality hardware. As AI shifts from software to form factor, design talent is becoming a competitive weapon, and Meta is clearly willing to pay up to get it. (Tip Ranks)

Delta Air Lines warned that the recent 43-day U.S. government shutdown will shave $200 million off profit, driven by flight cancellations, booking slowdowns, and air traffic controller shortages that forced capacity cuts nationwide. The airline canceled more than 2,000 flights as regulators restricted traffic at major airports, and industry groups estimate over 5 million passengers were affected. While Delta says demand remains healthy heading into early 2026, this is a reminder of how fragile airline operations become when public infrastructure fails, even temporarily. (Financial Times)

To the Arena,
- Nathan

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